ACM：每日国际金融市场分析（中英文对照）

ACM：每日国际金融市场分析 更新时间：2010-6-1 1:20:24 今日汇评：

日本民意调查显示半数选民希望首相鸠山辞职，这一信息公布后，日元汇率直线下降，日元兑主要国际货币汇率走低，加上日本生产指数逊于预期，这可能导致日本国力复苏无力，而令日元汇率步欧元后尘而引起市场恐慌。

美元兑日元攀升至91.38，而欧元兑日元升至112.63，市场猜测政治动荡将令日元对世界主要货币削弱，在一项民意调查显示，日本社会民主党在三方联合政府，超过全国的半数选民希望首相鸠山辞职。日元的避险魅力下跌。日本的工业生产增长1.3％，低于经济学家预测4月，最新的迹象表明日本经济复苏可能会失去动力。

央行可能会提高4.5％的隔夜现金利率目标后，明天最积极一轮不变克制零售销售和削减了四分之一按揭贷款。银行及其他金融公司提供的贷款上升0.2％，11月以来的最小涨幅，购房者的贷款上升0.5％，住宅价格增长下滑至0.3％。这是继本月初的报告显示房屋贷款批准下降了25％到9年来的最低水平。投资者愈发本月总督格伦史蒂文斯将保持澳大利亚的政策利率不变，直到2011年。澳元兑美元在0.8484的交易。国内生产总值增长可能放缓至0.6％据6月2日的报告。报告将显示4月零售销售额增长了0.3％，营建许可为连续第三个月下降据报告到期的明天。泰国央行将可能维持在1.25％的基准利率于6月2日，印尼央行可能会维持利率在6月4日菲律宾6.5％的成本，预计将在4％。

欧元兑美元在1.2270，而欧元兑日元的交易价格为112.63，此为第六次主权债务危机困扰，市场担心欧洲的努力以减少财政赤字将破坏该地区的复苏。在前一份报告预测，以显示欧洲经济前景的信心今天是5月持平，结束2个月的进展，欧元兑日元连续第二天下跌。公司经理指数和消费者信心指数，预计将在100.6。市场担心今年的预算赤字膨胀将导致政府拖欠和欧盟的最终解体，欧元已下跌7.9％。惠誉上周五剥夺其AAA级信用等级西班牙，说国家的债务负担很可能会拖累经济增长。欧元兑美元的14天的逗留随机振荡器低于20日水平，该资产已下跌过快的信号，并准备第六天增加。

美元兑加元下跌至1.0489，中银前景将提高政策利率，增加对美国资产的收益率优势，一份报告预测，显示经济复苏在第一季度加快，支持的情况下，央行提高利率。第一季度国内生产总值可能扩大的一份报告显示今天在5.9％左右。加拿大央行行长卡尼马克将可能提高0.25％的政策利率至0.5％时，6月1日或公布决策。CAD和中银的加息政策行动的需求可能只是成为一种工具，以期了解在欧洲的信贷危机的央行关注的力量。

The USDJPY climbed to 91.38 while EURJPY rose to 112.63 as the JPY weakened against its major counterparts amid speculation political turmoil will dent the currency’s safe-haven appeal after Japan’s Social Democratic Party left a three-way coalition government. The JPY also fell after a poll showed that more than half of the nation’s voters want Prime Minister Hatoyama to resign. Japan’s industrial production increased 1.3% less than economists forecast in April, the latest sign that the economic recovery may be losing momentum.

RBA will probably leave the overnight cash rate target at 4.5% tomorrow unchanged after the most aggressive round of increases restrained retail sales and slashed mortgage lending by a quarter. Loans provided by banks and other finance companies gained 0.2%, the smallest gain since November, lending to home buyers rose 0.5% , dwelling price growth slumped to 0.3%. That follows reports this month showing home-loan approvals dropped 25% to the lowest level in nine years. Investors boosted bets this month that Governor Glenn Stevens will keep Australia’s policy rate unchanged until 2011. The AUDUSD traded at 0.8484. GDP growth probably slowed to 0.6% according to a report on June 2. Reports will show retail sales increased 0.3% in April and building approvals fell for the third month according to a report due tomorrow. Thailand’s central bank will probably maintain its benchmark rate at 1.25% on June 2, Bank Indonesia may keep borrowing costs at 6.5% on June 4 and Philippines is forecast to be held at 4% on June 3.

The EURUSD was at 1.2270 while EURJPY traded at 112.63, poised for a sixth monthly loss amid concerns Europe’s efforts to reduce fiscal deficits and stem a sovereign-debt crisis will undermine the region’s recovery. The EURJPY fell for a second day ahead of a report today forecast to show European confidence in the economic outlook was unchanged in May, snapping two months of advances. An index of executive and consumer sentiment is expected to be at 100.6. EUR has slumped 7.9% this year amid concern swelling budget deficits will lead to government defaults and an eventual breakup of the EU. Fitch on Friday stripped Spain of its AAA credit grade, saying the nation’s debt burden is likely to weigh on economic growth. The EURUSD’s 14-day stochastic oscillator stayed for a sixth day below the 20 level that signals that an asset has fallen too quickly and is poised to rise.

USDCAD declined to 1.0489 on prospects BOC will raise the policy rate, boosting the yield advantage over US assets and also before a report forecast to show its economic recovery quickened in the first quarter, backing the case for the central bank to increase interest rates. GDP probably expanded at 5.9% annually in Q1 according to a report due today. BOC Governor Mark Carney will probably raise the policy rate by 0.25% to 0.5% when policy makers meet on June 1. A rate increase would boost demand for the CAD and the BOC policy move may become a tool to gauge the strength of central banks’ concerns over Europe’s credit crisis.

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